Creator sentiment
6 creators · 6 views · past 7 days
Updated November 10, 2026 (UTC)
The bull case
- +The S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election since 1938.
- +The average 12-month return after midterms is plus 14.8%, and the pattern is fairly uniform.
- +Midterm-year selloffs price in the worst case, which then fails to materialize, fueling the rebound.
- +After VIX spikes over 60%, the S&P 500 has never made a new low and has been higher 5 out of 5 times one month later.
- +The current setup is a 'calm to shock' rather than a bear market spike, similar to past recoveries.
- +The current cycle is still bullish; price is repricing into a short-term discount where institutions are likely to step in and buy.
- +About 75% of the time price bounces from this level and returns to all-time highs within 60-90 days.
- +The sell-off is an overreaction to semiconductor guidance and data-center fears; nothing has actually occurred yet.
The bear case
- −Open interest shows a massive increase in put positions, indicating the market is bracing for a drop.
- −The ETF failed to hold a key support level and is at risk of further pullback, potentially to 714 (an 8% drop).
- −The macro environment is bearish, with the market looking for reasons to go lower.
What StockTubers recently said
📹 What Happens to Stocks After Midterm Elections?
The S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election since 1938. · The average 12-month return after midterms is plus 14.8%, and the pattern is fairly uniform. · Midterm-year selloffs price in the worst case, which then fails to materialize, fueling the rebound.
📹 Big Pullback. Bigger Opportunity.
Open interest shows a massive increase in put positions, indicating the market is bracing for a drop. · The ETF failed to hold a key support level and is at risk of further pullback, potentially to 714 (an 8% drop). · The macro environment is bearish, with the market looking for reasons to go lower.
📹 🚨 [IS THE SELL OFF OVER?] My URGENT Message for ALL Investors!! Thank Me LATER! #qqq #spy
After VIX spikes over 60%, the S&P 500 has never made a new low and has been higher 5 out of 5 times one month later. · The current setup is a 'calm to shock' rather than a bear market spike, similar to past recoveries.
