Creator sentiment
17 creators · 17 views · past 7 days
Updated November 10, 2026 (UTC)
The bull case
- +Up 600% since IPO and has changed his life; repeated 20-40% drops were chances to lower cost basis.
- +Investors fail on the psychological game, not the math, by selling during these drawdowns.
- +Tom got assigned Palantir at low prices, rolled down, and was patient through the drawdown before the stock rallied strongly.
- +He was reluctant to let the shares get called away, believing he could re-enter at a better strike.
- +The put sale pays a 2.5% return (29% annualized), more than three times the Apple trade.
- +High IV rank near 99% boosts the premium, though it also lowers the probability of profit to 81.1%.
- +The strike is about 19% below the current price, providing a cushion.
- +Notes Palantir having a decent day, pushing up almost 4%.
The bear case
- −At ~$440B market cap versus ~$10B forward sales, the valuation is very rich; even assuming all sales were earnings, it's a lot to pay.
- −Even if revenue 8x's over 5-10 years, the stock only roughly doubles — a poor payoff for a nearly impossible task.
- −AI commoditizes software; OpenAI and Anthropic can do what Palantir does at far lower prices, eroding its moat and mystique.
- −He assigns only ~10% odds of another miracle and ~90% odds of no upside to massive downside; European contract cancellations add risk.
- −Palantir trades at 110 times forward earnings, leaving no room for anything short of perfection.
- −Commercial bookings growth slowed to 11% quarter-over-quarter, the lowest since 2023.
- −Government growth alone cannot justify the valuation; the company needs explosive commercial growth.
- −Lou has been unable to make sense of Palantir's valuation for five years.
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Up 600% since IPO and has changed his life; repeated 20-40% drops were chances to lower cost basis. · Investors fail on the psychological game, not the math, by selling during these drawdowns.
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Tom got assigned Palantir at low prices, rolled down, and was patient through the drawdown before the stock rallied strongly. · He was reluctant to let the shares get called away, believing he could re-enter at a better strike.
📹 My 7 Rules for Selling Puts (Never Sell One Without These)
The put sale pays a 2.5% return (29% annualized), more than three times the Apple trade. · High IV rank near 99% boosts the premium, though it also lowers the probability of profit to 81.1%. · The strike is about 19% below the current price, providing a cushion.
